Nigeria stands at a critical energy crossroads. With the operationalization of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Fertiliser Complex, one of Africa’s largest refining facilities, the argument that Nigeria must keep importing fuel is being challenged directly. In a bold statement made in early December 2025, Dangote declared there is no justification for continuing to import crude or refined fuel — Nigeria already has capacity to meet its domestic demand.
This call to “stop importing fuel” is not just rhetoric. It’s anchored on the reality of Nigeria’s refining potential, law, economic interests, and a vision for value-added growth. Below is a comprehensive look at what Dangote said, what it means, and the stakes for Nigeria’s energy, economy, and future.
What Dangote Is Saying — The Core Message
- Dangote emphasised that existing laws (notably the Petroleum Industry Act, or PIA) are meant to prioritise domestic crude supply to local refineries. But, according to him, these laws are being undermined by international oil companies exploiting loopholes. Instead of supplying refineries at home, many divert Nigerian crude to their foreign trading subsidiaries — often abroad — then re-sell refined products back to Nigeria, sometimes at a premium.
- He argued this practice is economically harmful and unfair to local refiners who end up paying more for crude, eroding the competitiveness and viability of domestic refining.
- Dangote noted that supply from the state-controlled Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) currently covers only a portion of what refiners need; Dangote Refinery alone needs significantly more cargoes monthly than what is currently supplied for optimal operation.
- He lamented that while his refinery exported large volumes of gasoline in mid-2025, imported fuel was still flooding the domestic market — a move he called “dumping.”
- Finally, Dangote pledged ambitious output goals: supplying 50 million litres of petrol daily during the yuletide season, with a target of 1.5 billion litres for December 2025 and another 1.5 billion for January 2026.
In short: Nigeria has refining capacity — what’s lacking is the political and regulatory discipline to ensure domestic refining becomes the backbone of the fuel supply chain.
Energy Independence & Reduced Import Dependency
If fully utilised, the Dangote refinery and other domestic plants could dramatically reduce reliance on imported refined petroleum. That could cut the outflow of foreign exchange, reduce exposure to global supply shocks, and insulate Nigeria’s fuel supply from international volatility.
Value Addition — From Raw to Refined on Home Soil
Instead of exporting raw crude and importing refined products, refining locally means capturing more value within Nigeria. This supports industrialisation, creates skilled jobs, and amplifies economic benefit beyond just oil extraction.
Jobs, Growth & Economic Stability
Local refining can become a pillar of industrial growth — for jobs in refining, logistics, distribution, transport, maintenance, and more. Dangote’s own expansion could add more jobs and stimulate related sectors (transport, construction, services).
Price and Supply Stability
With robust local refining and distribution, the risk of erratic supply, long queues at petrol stations, and price spikes (often caused by import delays, forex shortages, or global oil shocks) could be mitigated. Domestic supply might lead to steadier availability and potentially more predictable pump prices.
Retaining Foreign Exchange and Strengthening the Naira
Every litre of imported fuel costs foreign exchange — converting that into domestically refined petrol helps conserve forex, reduce pressure on currency reserves, and strengthen the national currency over time.
What’s Holding Nigeria Back — The Real Obstacles
It’s not enough to have the machinery for refining; structural, regulatory, and systemic challenges still hamper the full realisation of domestic refining potential. Here are the main barriers highlighted (directly or indirectly) by Dangote and relevant industry analysts:
- Divergence from the spirit of the PIA: International oil companies are bypassing domestic supply obligations by redirecting crude to foreign subsidiaries — undermining local refining.
- Inconsistent crude supply: Dangote claims that current crude deliveries from state suppliers are insufficient for optimal refinery operations — dramatically limiting output potential.
- Dumping of imported refined fuel: Even with local production, imported fuel continues to enter the market — sometimes undermining local capacity with cheaper or price-manipulated fuel, discouraging use of domestic output.
- Regulatory inertia and import licensing: Some regulators continue to issue import licences for refined products — even when domestic refineries exist — a practice criticised by local refiners and industry stakeholders.
- Logistics, infrastructure & distribution challenges: It is one thing to refine; delivering fuel nationwide reliably and efficiently — given Nigeria’s vast geography and sometimes poor infrastructure — remains a massive challenge.
